MOST NOTEWORTHY: Lam Research, Deutsche Telekom and France Telecom were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Credit Suisse upgraded Lam Research (NASDAQ:LRCX) to Outperform from Neutral citing margin expansion and valuation. Lam was named the firm's top pick in SCE names for 2H08.
JP Morgan upgraded shares of Deutsche Telekom (NYSE:DT) to Overweight from Neutral as they expect a stronger second half of the year for the industry.
France Telecom (NYSE:FTE) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Merrill and to Buy from Hold at Societe Generale after the company walked away without bidding for Sweden's TeliaSonera.
Minyanville's top dog, Todd Harrison, dares to ask in public what Wall Street types quietly consider in private. For more insight and ideas, visit www.minyanville.com.
Lot's going on today as I juggle the end of June. With time constraints on both sides of this screen in mind, I humbly offer the following thoughts:
I covered the incremental "fade" exposure in Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) (put out near the opening) and I'm now in watch mode.
It's tough to tell how much of the big beta action is quarter-end proppage and how much is legitimate demand. As I covered my American Express (NYSE: AXP) earlier--and continue to have exposure in Wachovia (NYSE: WB)--I'm leaving it on for the time being (and yes, subject to change).
And yeah, I'm trading around that ugly duckling--nibbling under $15 and trading the swings. There's no putting lipstick on that pig--using it as my vehicle of choice has thus far been wrong. It ain't over till our interns sing, however, so I'm fighting the good fight.
That sorta brings up the question du jour: Are we gonna see quarterly inflows... or quarterly outflows?
The upside seems begrudging. Of course, after the decline we've seen, you'd be grudging too if you were Hoofy.
Somebody call Armond Goldman! l I'm starting the South Beach Diet on Monday, lest anyone wonders what is happening to my sense of humor.
The scariest thing on my screen? The VXO is down 6% today. I repeat, the VXO is down 6% today. Ruh roh...
Mastercard (NYSE: MA) shares are trading higher today after the company announced it will pay competitor American Express (NYSE: AXP) up to $1.8 billion to settle an antitrust lawsuit. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on MA.
After hitting a one-year low of $120.00 in August, the stock hit a one-year high of $320.30 in May. MA opened this morning at $291.10. So far today the stock has hit a low of $290.10 and a high of $295.16. As of 12:40, MA is trading at $294.10, up $13.17 (4.9%). The chart for MA looks bullish but deteriorating, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an October bull-put credit spread below the $195 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 6.4% return in four months as long as MA is above $195 at October expiration. Mastercard would have to fall by more than 33% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
MasterCard (NYSE: MA) is recently trading at $290 in pre-open trading, above its close of $280.37.
American Express (NYSE: AXP) reached a $1.8 billion settlement with MA over the card issuer's lawsuit with the payment processor over allegations MA and some other banks prohibited financial firms from issuing credit cards through AXP.
MA July option implied volatility of 42 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, indicating non-directional price movement.
Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com
I love the long-term prospects of Visa (NYSE: V) and MasterCard (NYSE: MA), but I do have to concede that a pesky lawsuit by Discover (NYSE: DFS) is the one big fly in this story's soup. According to the following article, Discover wants both credit-card companies to pay $6 billion for perceived violations of antitrust regulations. Unfortunately, these damages could be tripled if Visa and MasterCard lose. One of the big problems here is that American Express (NYSE: AXP) already won a settlement of $2.1 billion from Visa late last year and the company established an escrow fund worth $3 billion for litigation payments.
I'll admit, this lawsuit does give me and my credit-card investment thesis a little case of the shivers. After all, tripling $6 billion to $18 billion means that a huge amount of money is in play here, and a successful outcome for Discover would hamper the stocks of the two big card entities. When you read through the litigation risks in Visa's SEC filings (out of MasterCard and Visa, the latter is my favorite since it is still relatively fresh off its IPO and MasterCard has already had a big run), they are pretty scary. And the fact that the $6 billion figure just came to light this week has probably soured the perception of some investors and analysts. Nevertheless, all the previous litigation talk didn't stop Visa's stock from taking off after its IPO earlier this year.
5-Star Stocks in Warren Buffett's Portfolio Morningstar examines the most watched portfolio in the world -- Berkshire Hathaway's. Among the five-star stocks in the Oracle of Omaha's portfolio are Amercian Express, CarMax, J&J, Lowe's, UPS, Wellpoint and Kraft Foods. 5-Star Stocks in the Berkshire Hathaway Portfolio - Morningstar Secret Ways to Boost Your Social Security These four strategies can add as much as $12,000 a year to your retirement income. Secret Ways to Boost Your Social Security - Kiplinger.com
Perini Corporation (NYSE: PCR) is a leading construction services company offering diversified general contracting, construction management and design/build services to private clients and public agencies in the U.S. and selected overseas locations. The firm is well know for its casino and hotel projects, but is also active in the design and construction of schools, health care facilities, entertainment facilities and sports complexes. Its civil division builds and maintains highways, subways, and airports. Clients include Marriott International (NYSE: MAR), Honeywell International (NYSE: HON) and American Express (NYSE: AXP).
The company surprised the Street earlier in the month, when it reported Q1 EPS of 91 cents and revenues of $1.26 billion. Analysts had been expecting 87 cents and $1.27 billion. The COO cited strong contributions from the building and management services segments. Management also guided FY08 EPS to $3.50-$3.75 ($3.73 consensus), FY08 revenues to $5.5-$5.9 million ($5.16B consensus), FY09 EPS to $4.00-$4.20 ($3.85 consensus) and FY09 revenues to $7.3-$7.8 billion ($5.46B consensus).
This week's Barron's [subscription required] reverses itself -- after panning Berkshire Hathaway Inc (NYSE: BRK.A) in December 2007 it has now reversed course -- with a hedge from a short seller. Since panning Berkshire in December -- when it traded for $143,000 a share, the stock has lost 14% so Barron's was right then. Is it right to bet on a rise in Berkshire now? I really don't know because I don't find either the bear or the bull case persuasive.
Why did Barron's pan Berkshire back in December? As I posted, Barron's bear case on Berkshire was simply that it was overvalued on the basis of its book value and earnings growth. Berkshire's ratio of market value to book value was then at 1.8 times its September 30 book value, of $77,800 a share. That was above its average of 1.6 in the past five years.
It was also valued at 23 times estimated 2007 operating profits of $6,300 a share. 2008's profits were then expected to be similar to 2007's. If Berkshire were then valued at 1.7 times book value, a premium to its five-year average, Barron's estimated that stock would trade at $132,000.
Some investors are starting to believe that the worst of the credit crunch is behind us, and European banks including UBS (NYSE: UBS) and Royal Bank of Scotland (NYSE: RBS) are leading a bullish move in the markets.
The dollar stabilized and oil weakened, giving a boost to many blue chip stocks. Home Depot (NYSE: HD) rose nearly 4% in trading on Thursday, and American Express (NYSE: AXP) was up nearly 7%.
Not all news is positive, however. U.S. futures are flat as the markets await the Labor Department's official employment report, due today. According to Bloomberg's calculation, unemployment in the U.S. continues to rise as employers shed more than 75,000 jobs in April. The unemployment rate is now probably at 5.2%, a three-year high. And real unemployment is probably worse that that, since the Labor Department's calculation method, which Bloomberg uses, significantly undercounts unemployment and underemployment.
And the Microsoft-Yahoo! saga continues. The AP reports that Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) may go hostile in its bid to buy Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) today. Should be entertaining, so say tuned.
This post is part of our Battle of the Brands feature. Let us know which brand you prefer, and check out other Battle of the Brands posts.
In the battle for "cool history," American Express (NYSE: AXP) wins this one hands down. The company was started in 1850 as an express delivery service. At the time, the U.S. Postal Service was slow and unreliable, and sending anything important or valuable was ill-advised. The American Express Company was known for its "expressmen," who delivered valuable packages all over the country, usually on horseback or with stagecoaches.
After establishing a strong reputation for delivery service, the company later decided to phase out deliveries and move into financial services. They had delivered countless documents for banks, and the money business was appealing. American Express first offered money orders in 1882, followed by travelers cheques in 1891. The travelers cheque business was the main focus of the company for many years.
In 1958, the company gave in to market pressures and issued its first charge card. For almost 30 years, though, the card was not to be used as a "credit" card. All balances were to be paid in full each month. In 1987, that changed as American Express finally issued a card that allowed revolving balances.
After opening trading at $55.00 on March 19, the stock has hit a new high today. V opened this morning at $76.00. So far today the stock has hit a low of $73.91 and a high of $76.08. As of 12:25, V is trading at $74.67, up $2.37 (3.2%). The chart for V looks bullish and steady.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a June bull-put credit spread below the $60 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 6.4% return in just two months as long as V is above $60 at June expiration. Visa would have to fall by more than 19% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
V hasn't been below $60 since just after its IPO and has shown support around $70 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out on Monday) disappoint, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock might find between $60 and $65, where it made intermediate bottoms over the past two months.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in V or AXP.
It seems that despite Apple's crushing earnings and sales estimates Wednesday and Ford swinging to profit this morning, investors are wary of earnings. Stock futures declined early Thursday following Amazon's earnings, Starbucks' profit warnings as well as other companies. In addition, debate over an expected pause in the Federal Reserve recent wave of rate cuts as well as some data seem to leave investors more on a cautious mood this morning.
U.S. stocks ended higher on Wednesday after better-than-forecast results from Boeing (NYSE: BA) helped sentiment on the Street, albeit in a choppy manner. The Dow industrials finished nearly 43 points higher, or 0.34%, the S&P 500 rose almost 4 points, or 0.29%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 28 points, or 1.29%.
Today, several economic reports are due out. At 8:30 a.m., weekly initial jobless claims will be released, as well as March durable goods orders. At 10:00 a.m., new home sales will come out, where another drop is expected.
Hottest Stocks of 2008 (so far) Some surprising names have performed well this year--and they have room to run. They include Allied Irish Banks, Home Depot, Lowe's, American Express, Time Warner Cable, Vulcan Materials and Verizon. The Hottest Stocks This Year - Morningstar Stock Strategist
Worst Places for Homeowner's Debt It's no secret that homeowners with subprime mortgages have taken a beating. Next up: those who have combined their mortgages with home equity loans, second loans or both. These combinations spell especially bad news for homeowners with the worst city being Sacramento. Other cities with high homeowner debt include San Diego, Washington DC and Colorado Springs. Worst Cities For Homeowner Debt - Forbes.com
Fort Worth-based AMR Corp. (NYSE: AMR), parent of American Airlines, was the first major U.S. airline company to report first-quarter results, and it posted a loss of $1.32 per share. Revenue rose 5% to $5.7 billion. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial had expected a loss of $1.34 per share on revenue of $5.73 billion.
Filling seats wasn't American's problem -- average occupancy hit a record 79.1% percent in the quarter. Average fares paid rose 5.1%, as airlines raised ticket prices. But executives said they were concerned about the weakening economy and even more worried about skyrocketing fuel costs. American's fuel spending jumped 45%, offsetting further increases in revenue.
American announced that it will be cutting U.S. capacity by 3.6% this year and selling 90% of its investment arm, American Beacon Advisors. The company also expects to sell or spin off its American Eagle regional airline this year to raise additional cash.
American is also speeding the replacement of its fleet with more fuel-efficient Boeing (NYSE: BA) 737-800s, taking delivery of 30 new planes in 2009 and 2010 instead of the previously planned 23.
AMR shares rose 35 cents, or 4.1%, to $8.92 in trading Wednesday.
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MOST NOTEWORTHY: Lam Research, Deutsche Telekom and France Telecom were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Minyanville's top dog, Todd Harrison, dares to ask in public what Wall Street types quietly consider in private. For more insight and ideas, visit 
MasterCard
I love the long-term prospects of 
This post is part of our 
It seems that despite Apple's crushing earnings and sales estimates Wednesday and Ford swinging to profit this morning, investors are wary of earnings. Stock futures declined early Thursday following Amazon's earnings, Starbucks' profit warnings as well as other companies. In addition, debate over an expected pause in the Federal Reserve recent wave of rate cuts as well as some data seem to leave investors more on a cautious mood this morning.
Fort Worth-based 
Wal-Mart's launch of $20 slimming jeans will be a huge success
Why I spent some of my stimulus check on GE
Why the dollar will keep falling
