For the first time Monday I heard John McCain comparing Barack Obama to Jimmy Carter. I had heard this before in other arenas, but not from McCain. I guess that despite these two presidential candidates pledging to the American people to bring change and resist politics as usual, they are both, as usual as one could get.
Obama is being shaped by the pressures of running for office and to believe otherwise is delusional. I suppose one has to have hope but the effects of the campaign are becoming clear. Obama has been painting McCain as an extension of Bush, which is nonsense, and now in a typical tit-for-tat response, McCain is filling the air with Carter references.
Both McCain and Obama are wrong in their assessments of their opponents and they are becoming commoners to resort to the bottom of the barrel campaign techniques used in every campaign for most of our nation's proud history. Obama gave up the high ground too easily and McCain has decided he can sling mud with the best of them.
Laurence Tosi is certainly well educated, with an MBA and JD (from Georgetown University). Only 40 years old, he has served as Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MER)'s chief operator officer of global markets and investment banking.
With the turmoil on Wall Street, there has been a lot of defections lately. For example, Lazard Ltd. (NYSE: LAZ) investment banker, George Bilicic, moved over to KKR. There was also Lehman Brother Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: LEH)'s investment banker, Gary Weinstein, who took a spot at Providence Equity Partners.
Toro (NYSE: TTC), maker of lawn and snow-throwing equipment and competitor of Deere (NYSE: DE) and Black and Decker (NYSE: BDK), seems to be hitting a rough patch because of the weakened economy. The top line decreased to about $639 million in net sales for the second quarter. Earnings per share skidded almost 10% to $1.60. That was good enough to beat expectations by a penny, as Briefing.com pointed out, but make no mistake about it this was not an impressive quarter.
The company also sported negative operational cash flow. Although Toro used less cash, it still needed $111 million to keep corporate activities going. A look at the most recent 10-K shows that Toro has been generating positive annual cash flows over the last few years, so I wouldn't necessarily worry about this cash-flow statement for now, as it most likely will improve as the year goes on. As a matter of fact, management said in the earnings release that it was confident about the cash flow and intended to repurchase more shares.
But Toro doesn't expect much in the way of growth for the coming year. Guidance calls for flat top-line growth in fiscal 2008 and for net earnings per share to either be flat or to fall 5%. Not an inspirational forecast, let me tell you. With the stock pretty near a 52-week low and with the dividend yield not as high as I'd like, I don't see a reason why an investor should be fooling with Toro right now.
Yes, I do see that management seems confident in the future, and who knows, you could be getting a value here since this is a powerful brand, but I think the shares might be pressured in the coming months if energy costs continue to rise and inflation remains a concern (interestingly enough, Toro shares did rebound in the after-hours session on Thursday after being sold throughout the day in regular trading). No, this isn't the end of Toro, but for me, I'm not inclined to put money to work here until I see at least some strength in the stock.
Disclosure: I don't own shares in any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.
Readers of this space know that the investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models and who have a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. And with the above in mind, Black & Decker is worth a review.
The Black & Decker Corporation (NYSE: BDK) is a global manufacturer and marketer of power tools and accessories, hardware, home improvement products, and fastening systems.
In general, analysts like BDK's recent restructuring to improve productivity and operating margins. For the most part, analysts are forecasting low-single-digit sales growth for 2008 and 2009, weighed down by the housing sector's doldrums.
It is alarming to me that the same people who screw up the economy (or stand by watching) are the ones that are now promoting the remedies. They have proven without a shadow of a doubt that this is not their strong suit. The proposed economic stimulus package has bi-partisan support and calls for an estimated $156 billion of tax rebates ranging from $500 to $1,000 (+ $300 for each child) that might show up in May.
If we are going to add on to our already humungous joke of national debt, than I want to invest this capital in something that will bring a higher return on invested capital (ROIC) than the paltry one time mad money. That expenditure should be for national infrastructure projects like roadways, bridges, tunnels, and waterways.
We have all heard about the poor condition of our national infrastructure and the hundreds of billions of dollars of repair work and replacement that is desperately needed.
This alternative would bring visible results that every single person in the country would benefit from and improved linkages always stimulate economic growth. Road improvements even reduce fuel consumption by shortening routes and reducing friction both strategically and physically.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says these are the stocks that you should watch.
Some stocks have just been totally given up on, as if nothing good can ever happen to them. Check out Masco (NYSE: MAS) (Cramer's Take) , for example. Masco's a great company, always has been -- a dominant supplier to the housing industry, both remodel and original. This company, which MAKES money, is selling at almost a 5% yield and no one cares.
Or how about Fortune Brands (NYSE: FO) (Cramer's Take)? It has a terrific housing component -- dominant player -- and one of the best spirits businesses. We found out from Diageo (NYSE: DEO) recently that they have a great business in spirits, and the company may be on the verge of getting Absolut, a fantastic brand. The stock trades at an amazingly low multiple. Or consider Black & Decker (NYSE: BDK) (Cramer's Take) , one the great innovators with a classically pro-shareholder bias.
These companies are making good money in the worst environment imaginable. They have decent balance sheets. When this period ends, they will be dominant players, taking share from everyone.
The market's recent pullback has created several moderate-risk, bargain-basement-price stocks, and one worth an evaluation is Black & Decker.
The Black & Decker Corporation (NYSE: BDK) is a global manufacturer and marketer of power tools and accessories, hardware, home improvement products, and fastening systems.
Analysts expect BDK's recent restructuring to improve productivity and operating margins. In general, analysts are forecasting low-single-digit sales growth for 2008 and 2009, weighed down by the housing sector's doldrums. Meanwhile, BDK's fastening/assembly unit business should improve somewhat, offsetting housing's likely sub-par performance, and register mid-single-digit sales growth. The Reuters FY 2008/FY 2009 EPS consensus estimates for BDK are $1.14 to $1.57.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says if we're flat or down ahead of the right Fed action today, several sectors will take off.
Every rate cut matters now. We are in that zone where money in can overwhelm existing stocks and move them up simply because there hasn't been a lot of new supply -- ex banking preferreds -- and the buybacks kick in.
Let's take the homebuilders. As crazy as it was, the homebuilders bought a huge amount of stock back, and the supply is unusually low. That means you get exaggerated moves as that money comes in from the sidelines.
Black & Decker Corp. (NYSE: BDK) posted this morning a fourth-quarter profit, excluding items, of $67.4 million, or $1.06 a share, ahead of analyst estimates of $1.03 per share. BDK shares are trading lower today, however, as the company also projected lower earnings for 2008, saying it doesn't expect a housing recovery in 2008. BDK now expects earnings of $1.10 to $1.20 per share for the first quarter, while analysts were expecting $1.40 per share. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on BDK.
After hitting a one-year high of $97.01 in July, the stock hit a one-year low of $63.35 earlier this month. This morning, BDK opened at $65.65. So far today the stock has hit a low of $65.65 and a high of $68.54. As of 10:15, BDK is trading at $67.80, down $2.18 (-3.1%). The chart for BDK looks bearish but improving slightly, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the poor outlook for this economy has stemmed the flood of takeovers from abroad we'd normally see in this kind of market.
Where are the Europeans? Where are the Asians? Where are the Middle Easterners? Are they all cowed into not buying our companies despite the decline in the dollar?
Consider that there have been only two deals above $10 billion this year: AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) (Cramer's Take), which bought Medimmune for $15 billion, and Saudi Basic Industries, which purchased GE Plastics for $12 billion. No one has taken advantage of the astounding decline in the U.S. dollar to buy up enterprises.
Take two that seem absurdly low: Whirlpool (NYSE: WHR) (Cramer's Take) and Black & Decker (NYSE: BDK) (Cramer's Take). Both companies have bought in an immense amount of stock. Both companies now trade at $5 billion in value. Give them a 25% haircut and you can see how much these name-brand companies are marked down.
Here's a talked about possible takeover target that deserves attention. The customer is always right, right? Not here. Complain about a problem, don't get results, complain some more, and bam!, they cut you off. That's right. Ask the first lucky 1,000 complainers-soon-to-be-former customers if they're happy with their new carrier. Bet they are. What this company needs is a new leader. And don't forget Mr. Gary D. Forsee, chairman, president and CEO, what goes around, comes around. Time to hand those triple titles over to new management and move out of the way. What a country.
Being number two not good enough? How about number three? It hasn't hit the newswire yet, but don't be surprised if Edward J. Zander, chairman and CEO, is pushed out. Another case of bad customer relations? Sure is. First falling behind Nokia Corporation (NYSE: NOK), and now Samsung, is a matter of a lack of sales in a booming wireless market. No easy fete, that. The company is losing money, shaking the management tree, and firing employees in droves. And they have no new phone coming out of the pipeline. The question is: When does Mr. Zander get his number called?
Is a private equity firm interested in this investment products company? Since last month, when Nuveen Investments Inc (NYSE: JNC) was sold to Madison Dearborn Partners, Waddell & Reed has been the subject of a buyout. The speculation hasn't gone away, and the stock continues to trade near its 52 week high of $27.80. TRAVELZOO INC (NASDAQ: TZOO)
MOST NOTEWORTHY: RadioShack Corp (RSH), Visual Sciences (VSCN), Alcan (AL), U.S. Celluar (USM) and Westwood One (WON) were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Banc of America downgraded shares of RadioShack (NYSE: RSH) to Sell from Neutral and lowered their target to $18 from $26 as they believe cuts to labor costs and advertising expenses will make it more difficult to overcome declining wireless trends.
Friedman Billings cut Visual Sciences (NASDAQ: VSCN) to Market Perform from Outperform on valuation. Citigroup downgraded Alcan to Hold from buy on the acquisition news.
Soleil cut U.S. Celluar (AMEX: USM) to Sell from Hold on valuation.
Westwood One (NYSE: WON) was downgraded to Sell from Hold at Citigroup based on management distractions and weak fundamentals...
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Cowen removed ImClone Systems (NASDAQ: IMCL) from its Focus List, as the firm believes Erbitux is now more in line with consensus but said financials remain uninspiring.
When you are in the industrial supply business, the competition is ubiquitous and differentiating yourself presents a particular challenge. There is a firm in in Melville, New York that solves the problem by stocking over a half a million products and guaranteeing same day shipment.
MSC Industrial Direct Co. (NYSE: MSM) markets a range of industrial products that includes cutting tools, measuring instruments, tooling components, fasteners, plumbing supplies, electrical supplies, flat stock, raw materials, abrasives, hand tools and power tools. Suppliers include 3M (NYSE: MMM), Black & Decker (NYSE: BDK), Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW), Eaton Corporation (NYSE: ETN), Goodyear Tire & Rubber (NYSE: GT), Honeywell International (NYSE: HON) and Kimberly-Clark (NYSE: KMB). The company serves nearly 350,000 customers, via a master catalog, supplemental publications, telemarketing and the internet.
The firm surprised the Street late last month, when it reported solid Q3 numbers and guided Q4 estimates above consensus Street views. The share price popped on the news and has since been consolidating the gain in a bullish "pennant" pattern. Prices frequently exit pennants moving in the same direction they were traveling when they entered them. In this case, that would be to the upside.
Brokers recommend the issue with four "strong buys," three "buys," one "hold" and one "sell." Analysts see an 18% average annual growth rate, through the next five years. The MSM Sales Growth rate (32.27%), EPS Growth rate (26.00%), Return on Assets (17.72%), Return on Investment (20.86%) and Return on Equity (15.57%) compare favorably with industry, sector and S&P 500 averages. Institutions own about 69% of the outstanding shares. The stock is one of those used to calculate the S&P 400 MidCap Index. Over the past 52 weeks, it has traded between $37.23 and $56.91. A stop-loss of $49.75 looks good here.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: This morning's noteworthy initiations included Nokia Corp (NOK), Fortune Brands, Inc (FO), Whirlpool Corp (WHR), Dick's Sporting Goods, Inc (DKS), Kona Grill, Inc (KONA):
JP Morgan started Nokia Corp (NYSE: NOK) with an Overweight rating, believing the handset market is strong and expects gross profits to rise in 2007.
Soleil wants to wait on the sidelines of Fortune Brands Inc (NYSE: FO), initiating shares with a Neutral rating, given the potential acquisition of Sweden's V&S Group along with the softness in the home and hardware segment.
Soleil also started Whirlpool Corp (NYSE: WHR) with a Hold rating based on valuation, which they believe reflects the company's outlook through 2009.
Nollenberger expects Dick's Sporting Goods (NYSE: DKS) will continue to outperform its peers, starting shares off with a Buy rating, and believes the recent pullback provides a compelling buying opportunity.
KeyBanc is positive on Kona Grill's (NASDAQ: KONA) differentiated brand, compelling unit economics, positive SSS opportunity and growth, starting shares with a Buy rating...
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Ceva, Inc (NASDAQ: CEVA) was initiated at CIBC with a Sector Outperform rating.
Black & Decker Corp (NYSE: BDK) and Briggs & Stratton Corp (BGG) were initiated with Hold ratings at Soleil.
For the first time Monday I heard John McCain comparing Barack Obama to Jimmy Carter. I had heard this before in other arenas, but not from McCain. I guess that despite these two presidential candidates pledging to the American people to bring change and resist politics as usual, they are both, as usual as one could get.
Laurence Tosi is certainly well educated, with an MBA and JD (from Georgetown University). Only 40 years old, he has served as 
It is alarming to me that the same people who screw up the economy (or stand by watching) are the ones that are now promoting the remedies. They have proven without a shadow of a doubt that this is not their strong suit. The proposed 
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Street views. The share price popped on the news and has since been consolidating the gain in a bullish "pennant" pattern. Prices frequently exit pennants moving in the same direction they were traveling when they entered them. In this case, that would be to the upside.
Wal-Mart's launch of $20 slimming jeans will be a huge success
Why I spent some of my stimulus check on GE
Why the dollar will keep falling
