When natural disasters happen, there are always some companies that can turn the circumstances in their favor. Recent downpours in the Midwest provided such an opportunity as they came not only with high damages for people in the area, but also with floods for crop production, causing even higher agricultural commodity prices. The rise in corn and soybeans prices could easily lead to an increased demand for seeds, agricultural equipment, and fertilizers. BusinessWeeksuggests some big names to invest in that could offer us the advantages we are looking for.
One such company is Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE: ADM), which could also benefit from higher ethanol prices, after purchasing seven businesses in 2007. Bunge Limited (NYSE: BG) is also amid possible winners, having forecast better-than-expected fertilizer earnings. Shell eggs producer Cal-Maine Foods (NASDAQ: CALM) is also on the selected list; the company saw its shares climb 15% year to date, and has just revealed a new dividend payout policy.
Another important name is Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS), whose stock prices have surged 70% so far this year. BusinessWeek cites Mosaic as being able to benefit from higher prices for fertilizer and potash. Following the same logic, the article points out potash provider Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) and fertilizer distributor CF Industries Holdings (NYSE: CF), which should be able to take advantage of the weak dollar and higher sales prices.
Farm Stocks: Pick of the Crop Millions of acres of farmland may be under water, but some agricultural outfits stand to benefit as higher prices lead to demand for seeds, equipment, and fertilizer. They include Archer Daniels Midland, Mosiac, Potash Corp., Agriam, Monsanto and John Deere. Ag Stocks: Farm Favorites Millions More Could Get a Rebate If They File a Return Even as the IRS has sent out nearly 77 million tax rebates, more than 5 million retirees and disabled veterans who may qualify for a rebate haven't received one because they haven't filed a tax return. Millions more could get a rebate if they file a return - USATODAY.com
Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN) owns and operates one of the largest networks of full service agricultural and construction equipment stores in North America. The chain includes 48 dealerships in North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa and Nebraska, each representing one or more of the CNH Global (NYSE: CNH) equipment brands. The firm sells new equipment, rents a range of machines and provides parts and repair services. Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) is a major competitor.
The company pleased investors earlier in the week, when it reported fiscal Q1 EPS of 24 cents and revenues of $152.6 million. Analysts had been looking for 13 cents and $119.6 million. Management also guided FY09 EPS to 86-91 cents (79 cent consensus) and FY09 revenues to $575-$625 million ($588.55M consensus). The CEO cited a strong agriculture economy and solid demand for large agricultural equipment in support of the favorable outlook.
Is there a way to cash in on the commodities bubble without actually playing the commodities market? (Which, Andrew Tobias handily dismissed in The Only Investment Guide You'll Ever Need: "It is a fact that 90% or more of the people who play the commodities game get burned. I submit that you have now read all you need ever read about commodities.")
Yes, there are a handful of ETFs that specialize in commodities. The Wall Street Journal reports that investors are getting interested in farming stocks and companies like Monsanto Co. (NYSE:MON) and tractor maker Deere andCo. (NYSE:DE). Smaller companies like China's AgFeed (NASDAQ:FEED), which produces animal food and pork, is trading at about $16, down from $20 a month ago, but still nearly triple its price a year ago.
Two food commodities that the boom has not impacted too much are potatoes (which are not really part of the international commodities market) and sugar, which is heavily subsidized and mostly doesn't trade on the open market. Sugar prices recently sunk to a seven-month low because of an oversupply, Reuters says.
Toro (NYSE: TTC), maker of lawn and snow-throwing equipment and competitor of Deere (NYSE: DE) and Black and Decker (NYSE: BDK), seems to be hitting a rough patch because of the weakened economy. The top line decreased to about $639 million in net sales for the second quarter. Earnings per share skidded almost 10% to $1.60. That was good enough to beat expectations by a penny, as Briefing.com pointed out, but make no mistake about it this was not an impressive quarter.
The company also sported negative operational cash flow. Although Toro used less cash, it still needed $111 million to keep corporate activities going. A look at the most recent 10-K shows that Toro has been generating positive annual cash flows over the last few years, so I wouldn't necessarily worry about this cash-flow statement for now, as it most likely will improve as the year goes on. As a matter of fact, management said in the earnings release that it was confident about the cash flow and intended to repurchase more shares.
But Toro doesn't expect much in the way of growth for the coming year. Guidance calls for flat top-line growth in fiscal 2008 and for net earnings per share to either be flat or to fall 5%. Not an inspirational forecast, let me tell you. With the stock pretty near a 52-week low and with the dividend yield not as high as I'd like, I don't see a reason why an investor should be fooling with Toro right now.
Yes, I do see that management seems confident in the future, and who knows, you could be getting a value here since this is a powerful brand, but I think the shares might be pressured in the coming months if energy costs continue to rise and inflation remains a concern (interestingly enough, Toro shares did rebound in the after-hours session on Thursday after being sold throughout the day in regular trading). No, this isn't the end of Toro, but for me, I'm not inclined to put money to work here until I see at least some strength in the stock.
Disclosure: I don't own shares in any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says lots of companies now thrive with crude up here.
Oil's not a tax on everything -- it's a tax on the consumer. That's what I come down to when I see the charts this weekend and ponder what's happening in so much of industrial America.
Company after company that I examine -- the new techs, as I call them -- actually benefit from higher oil prices. Or they can pass them on with ease, because of the worldwide demand being so strong.
Take all of the companies involved with making a Boeing (NYSE: BA) (Cramer's Take): Boeing itself, Alcoa (NYSE: AA) (Cramer's Take), Honeywell (NYSE: HON) (Cramer's Take) and Precision Castparts (NYSE: PCP) (Cramer's Take) being good examples. Each of these is necessary because the new Dreamliner burns lots less fuel, and with fuel the biggest airline cost, it stands to reason that higher energy prices make the plane more desirable even at a higher price point.
Today's inflation report was the main reason for the rally as it looks like prices nominally are not getting much worse. But as I noted, that's true if you don't go to the gas station or grocery store. Home foreclosures rose yet again, and that may be something to get used to. Oil prices were down down $1.86 to $123.94 per barrel in after-hours trading. Here are the unofficial closing index levels:
China Architectural Engineering, Inc. (AMEX: RCH) saw another massive rise today based upon the Chinese earthquake. Shares were up 40% at $8.38 at the end of the day. Architecture, engineering, China, earthquake... what more did traders need to hear?
Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE) saw a sharp drop in shares after reporting earnings, and it pulled down other ag-stocks. The company said it was being impacted by tight part supplies and rising materials costs, and that sent shares tumbling 10% to $81.10 in the final minutes today.
Deere (NYSE: DE) was trading at $84.99 in early trading, below its close of $90.19 Tuesday.
DE reported Q2 EPS of $1.74 versus consensus estimates of $1.75.
Goldman Sachs says: "Estimates and price target are under review."
DE May 90 straddle closed at $5.95, June at $11.10. DE June option implied volatility of 47 is above its 26-week average of 43 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.
Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com
Shares of agricultural equipment maker Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE) have been plunging in early trading more than 6% despite posting a rise for its second-quarter profit, as its earnings per share were a bit shy of analysts' estimates. In addition, the company warned about further higher costs threats.
For the quarter, the world's largest manufacturer of agricultural machinery reported that its profit surged 22% to $763.5 million, lifted by soaring crop prices that increased international demand for agricultural equipment. The company posted earnings of $1.74 a share, slightly missing analysts' predictions for earnings of $1.75 per share in the quarter.
The agricultural equipment maker also announced a respectable 18% jump in revenues to $8.1 billion. Revenue during the period was helped by a 47% increase in overseas sales that benefited from the weak U.S. dollar. Analysts had forecast a lower revenue of $7.6 billion, according to Reuters Estimates.
Macy's (NYSE: M), which was forecast to report a loss of a penny a share in the first quarter, said the difficult retail environment hurt sales and it incurred costs from a restructuring. The loss came to $59 million, or 14 cents a share, compared with a profit of $36 million, or 8 cents a share, a year earlier. (As the numbers are quite fresh, it's possible they include one-time item not yet sorted out and not comparable to analyst expectations.)
John Deere (NYSE: DE) said its second-quarter profit rose 22%. Deere experienced increased demand for its farm equipment, as crop prices kept rising, posting an 18% increase in sales. Profit for the quarter jumped to $763.5 million, or $1.74 per share, a penny below analyst estimates. From premarket early action, it seems shares of DE might start much lower.
Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) also reported this morning, saying its first quarter loss widened to $151 million as the U.S. housing market worsened. Somehow, though, the results were not as poor as expected and FRE's loss of 66 cents a share beat estimates of a 92 cents a share loss. FRE's shares are up over 6% in premarket trading.
Still on earnings, last night Whole Foods (NASDAQ: WFMI) and Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) reported results. Shares of WFMI are plunging nearly 9% in premarket trading as the organic grocery chain reported a worse-than-forecast 13% profit fall.
Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) shares are also declining over 2.8% in premarket trading after the suitor of Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) reported a widening quarterly loss and a disappointing outlook.
Analysts believe that Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE) has kept its hand on the plow. The general analyst consensus indicates solid expectations that the company will continue to perform at or above expectations. According to AOL Money and Finance, analysts are giving indications that Deere is a buy. In defiance of today's market pull back, Deere & Co. shares have gained one half percent as of this writing.
Media sources are openly optimistic about Deere & Co., though actual commentary is sorely lacking. Barron"sdid go far enough to cite that some strategic execution failures of Deere competitors have played nicely for the company. With the weakened dollar giving solid momentum to Deere's international growth focus, and Deere equipment systems showing robust independent sales, for the time being the company appears to be a relatively safe harbor for longer term investment dollars.
Year to date return on Deere is just above a negative 3%, but the 5 year return on this company is over 300%. The best earnings estimates that I can lay a hand on hover around $1.75 per share.
Gary Sattler is a freelance blogger. He does not knowingly hold investment positions in the companies mentioned in this blog post.
Leo Fasciocco is a technical expert who focuses exclusively on finding breakout candidates. In his Ticker Tape Digest, he looks to agriculture equipment manufacturer Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE).
"Deere, with annual revenues of $24.8 billion, makes agricultural, industrial, forestry, and lawn-care equipment. DE is benefiting from the strong demand for its products in the farm sector. The company is also expanding aggressively in Russia.
"DE has broken out from a 13-week flat base. Its long-term chart shows DE soaring from 20 in 2003 - the start of the prior bull market - to 92. It has been a big winner in the big cap sector. The stock has gained 65% in the past 12 months versus a 5% drop in the S&P 500 index.
"The stock is in a base bracketed between roughly 78 on the downside and 91 on the upside. The breakpoint was set at the key upside resistance of the base. Deere has plowed through that resistance on increasing volume.
When natural disasters happen, there are always some companies that can turn the circumstances in their favor. Recent downpours in the Midwest provided such an opportunity as they came not only with high damages for people in the area, but also with floods for crop production, causing even higher agricultural commodity prices. The rise in corn and soybeans prices could easily lead to an increased demand for seeds, agricultural equipment, and fertilizers. BusinessWeek 
Deere
Shares of agricultural equipment maker 
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